Global trade risks prompt exporters to consider insurance

45% of Chinese exporters are expecting their turnover to grow this year.

For this year, 82% of surveyed companies expect an increase in business turnover generated through exports, particularly in consumer-related sectors like retail, household equipment, and computers & telecom, insights from Allianz Trade's Global Survey showed.

The Allianz Trade Global Survey, which polled over 3,000 exporters from China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the US, provides an optimistic outlook for 2024. 

Despite the series of crises that have marked recent years—from the COVID-19 pandemic to geopolitical tensions—exporters are looking forward to a rebound. However, there are potential risks and uncertainties that need careful consideration.

This optimism follows a challenging year of trade recession in 2023, where demand slowed unexpectedly. Despite these setbacks, nearly 40% of corporates foresee a significant increase of over 5% in their export business.

Chinese companies display the highest optimism, with 45% expecting their turnover to grow beyond 5%, and 11% predicting more than 10% growth. 

This contrasts with more cautious expectations in other regions, influenced by the ongoing US-China tensions.

Despite their optimism, exporters remain wary of several risks. Non-payment risk is a major concern, with 40% of respondents expecting an increase in 2024, aligning with forecasts of a 9% rise in global business insolvencies. 

Geopolitical risks, input shortages, and financing issues are also significant concerns.

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53% of companies are considering relocating supply chains due to geopolitical risks. However, actual relocation actions are limited, indicating a cautious approach. 

Companies focus on improving supply chain risk management, increasing ESG due diligence, and buying supply chain insurance instead.

To build resilience, companies are diversifying their supply chains, though this increases complexity. 

For instance, 48% of US exporters with production in China consider Asia-Pacific or Latin America for diversification. Yet, China's critical role in global supply chains means indirect exposure remains.

Sustainability is gaining traction, with 72% of respondents having ESG responsibilities. Despite this, progress is slow, with only 27% believing their companies have significantly implemented ESG actions. 

Most companies plan to reduce emissions by 1-5% in the next 12 months, falling short of what's needed for the net-zero target by 2050.

Outlook

Allianz Trade predicts global trade will rise by 2.8% in value terms in 2024, following a 2.9% contraction in 2023. 

This is below the long-term average of 5%, reflecting ongoing risks such as global shipping disruptions and rising protectionism.

Companies are focusing on long-term structural initiatives rather than short-term actions, with 76% having clear plans to transition away from fossil fuels. 

This marks a significant step towards sustainability, though substantial effort is still required.